Anthony Albanese probably didn’t think there was much chance of Donald Trump returning to power when he openly criticised the then US president during his final days in the White House.
Albanese, still opposition leader at the time, said Trump had “encouraged” the January 6 insurrection in 2021. He labelled it a direct assault on “the rule of law and democracy”.
The Labor leader also suggested Trump’s foreign policy approach “saw the first steps in a retreat by the US from its historical role as leader of the post-war international order”.
These comments were made from a position of relative diplomatic safety. Trump had already lost to Joe Biden, who would be sworn into office within days. There was little risk in joining the chorus of criticism being levelled at such an outrageous president on his way out the door. Surely the man in the red MAGA cap was done.
And yet, more than two years later, now Prime Minister Albanese is being urged to prepare for the very real possibility of a Trump return.
Trump 2.0?
Bruce Wolpe has worked as an adviser to Democrats in Congress for years and served on the staff of former prime minister Julia Gillard in Australia. His new book, Trump’s Australia, looks at how Trumpism changed Australia and the consequences of a second Trump term.
Put simply, Wolpe is no Trump fan, but he is taking very seriously the prospect of a comeback. He thinks the Albanese government should, too.
“His chances of [Republican Party] nomination are over 50 per cent”, says Wolpe. “His chances of election are just under 50 per cent, depending on the economy.”
That’s a stronger chance of a second Trump presidency than many in Australia have been willing to contemplate.
Barring a foreign policy crisis, US elections are generally determined by the performance of the economy. If prices are falling and jobs are growing, President Joe Biden is well placed to win a second term. If there’s no recovery, Biden will struggle.
Or as Wolpe puts it: “If there’s anxiety throughout the country and fear becomes the dominant force over hope, that’s Trump territory.”
But surely the prospect of Trump facing multiple criminal charges and the prospect of serious jail time knocks him out of contention? Not exactly.
Will Albanese call Trump out?
Yesterday, Trump demonstrated how he planned to use his legal troubles for political gain, regardless of the cost to democratic institutions.
After pleading not guilty to 37 charges, including alleged breaches of the Espionage Act for stashing classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, the former president did what he does best.
He used the whole circus to his advantage, hosting a fundraiser where he made various misleading statements, called the US Justice Department “corrupt”, and suggested the FBI had “staged” photos of the classified documents.
It was all, he said, an orchestrated attempt at “election interference” by Joe Biden, who was out to “destroy democracy”.
This, by the way, from someone facing a separate criminal probe himself over alleged election interference for asking officials in Georgia to alter the results of the state’s 2020 presidential vote.
Polls show 80 per cent of Republican voters think Trump should still be eligible to be president, even if convicted. Most of his Republican rivals, wary of upsetting the base, are doing nothing to discourage Trump’s conspiracy line.
So, will Albanese call this out, as he did after the January 6 insurrection, as a direct assault on “the rule of law and democracy”? He hasn’t so far.
Whenever asked about the prospects of a Trump return, the prime minister treads carefully. He prefers to focus on the “common values” the US and Australia share, which are “bigger than any individuals”. He’s confident the AUKUS deal will survive, regardless of who wins next year’s presidential election.
Better to be proactive than reactive
Bruce Wolpe isn’t so sure.
“He always wants stuff for the US,” says Wolpe, who doubts Trump’s commitment to both AUKUS and the Quad, given the approach he took in office to “bring down” NATO.
And now that Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison are no longer there, Wolpe isn’t sure old alliances will mean much. “Trump likes Australia, but will he like Australia under Albanese?”
The biggest unknown is what Trump might do about China. “God only knows,” Wolpe says. “Does he want a deal with China on trade at the expense of Taiwan? We don’t know. He hasn’t been definitive. We have to be prepared.”
If Trump’s views on Ukraine are any guide, Taiwan has good reason to be nervous. He’s suggested he could have cut a deal with Putin not to invade by handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia. “I could’ve made a deal to take over something, there are certain areas that are Russian-speaking areas, frankly.”
Wolpe’s concerns are existential. If Trump returns, he argues American democracy as we have known it “will probably come to an end”. Australia would therefore need to question its commitment to the alliance.
Preparing for even the possibility of such an unpredictable figure returning is a difficult task for all US allies. Many, no doubt, would prefer to write off his chances, particularly given the various legal dramas now in train.
But, as Wolpe says, it’s better to be proactive than reactive.
That means forging even closer ties with like-minded regional powers, including India, Japan and South Korea.
It also means continuing to make the case for Australia’s interests in Washington among both Democrats and Republicans. Much of that task will fall to the newish Australian ambassador, Kevin Rudd.
One added complication: Over the years Rudd has gone much harder on Trump than most, calling him “the most destructive president in history”, and a “traitor to the West”.
He’ll need all his diplomatic skills to re-position should Trump remain competitive in the presidential race now underway.
Source : ABCNews